Amazon.com, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amazon.com, Inc.

AMZN

Beta (adjusted)1.31

Intrinsic Value $297.82median of 6 methods · middle span $174-$458computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $266.43Price as of 28 Aug 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidenceLow

Market Cap $2.9T

Enterprise Value $2.9T

Shares Outstanding 10.9B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets60 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$230.00

Mean target$327.00

High · most bullish analyst$405.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$220.0015%

AWS growth falls below 20%, AI capacity monetization lags infrastructure deployment, and free cash flow deteriorates further. A result below Amazon's $22.5 billion Q3 operating-income guidance floor would indicate that spending and operating pressures are overwhelming current revenue momentum.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$327.0056%

Matches the consensus mean

Amazon delivers within its Q3 2026 guidance of $197.0-$202.0 billion in sales and $22.5-$26.5 billion in operating income, while AWS moderates from Q2's exceptional growth but remains above 25%. The $320 target is an internally constructed scenario estimate; no primary or otherwise citation-compliant analyst consensus was available to anchor it.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$400.0029%

AWS sustains growth above 30% as AI, Trainium, Graviton, and Bedrock demand converts committed capacity into revenue; advertising remains above 20%; and operating leverage offsets infrastructure spending. The Q2 release supports this upside pathway through 37% AWS growth, 26% advertising growth, and AI and chip businesses each exceeding a $25 billion annual revenue run rate.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

AWS accelerated to 37% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 and generated $16.6 billion of segment operating income.
Advertising services grew 26% year over year in Q2 2026, providing another fast-growing, asset-light earnings engine.
Consolidated Q2 operating income increased 43% to $27.5 billion while trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow increased 33% to $161.4 billion.

Key Investment Risks

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow declined to a $7.6 billion outflow as net property and equipment purchases increased sharply, primarily reflecting AI investment.
Q2 net income included $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income primarily associated with Anthropic, making headline earnings a poor measure of recurring operating performance.
Amazon identifies material uncertainty from tariffs, trade policy, energy prices, memory-chip supply, macroeconomic conditions, regulation, security incidents, and the timing and returns of investments in new opportunities.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources: 2

Quality Pillars Members

Sector-relative quality grades; rings mark the grade boundaries.

PredictabilityMedium66th sector rank
ProfitabilityMedium40th sector rank
GrowthHigh92nd sector rank
Fin StrengthHigh76th sector rank
ValuationMedium45th sector rank
DividendN/Aranks payers only

A missing spoke means insufficient data, never a zero. The Dividend axis ranks sector payers only; non-payers show a gap.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.