Ulta Beauty Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ulta Beauty Inc

ULTANASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $492.26median of 6 methods · middle span $352-$804computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 2 May 2026

Market Price $517.50Price as of 28 Aug 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $22.1B

Enterprise Value $22.1B

Shares Outstanding 43.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Last ex-dividend16 Mar 2012

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$450.00

Mean target$623.42

High · most bullish analyst$735.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 21 Jul 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$450.0020%

Intensified competition from Amazon and Sephora's Kohl's partnership leads to persistent market share erosion. Elevated inventory levels force heavy promotional discounting, severely damaging gross margins. Consumer discretionary spending weakens significantly, causing comparable store sales to turn flat or negative, dragging EPS below guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$623.5850%

Ulta achieves its updated fiscal 2026 guidance, delivering net sales growth of 6%-7% and comparable sales growth of 2.5%-3.5%. Operating margins experience minor pressure from promotional activity and the integration of Space NK, but EPS lands within the guided range of $28.36 to $28.80. The stock trades back toward its historical average forward P/E multiple of 17x.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$735.0030%

The beauty market normalizes at a healthy mid-single-digit growth rate. Ulta successfully leverages exclusive brand launches (such as Rare Beauty and Cécred) and its digital acceleration initiatives to recapture market share. Operating margins stabilize as supply chain investments bear fruit, and aggressive share buybacks (with $1.3 billion remaining under the current authorization as of May 2026) drive double-digit EPS growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled loyalty program with 46.3 million active members driving highly predictable, recurring revenue.
Differentiated retail model combining mass, prestige, and in-store salon services under one roof.
Strong balance sheet with robust cash flow generation supporting aggressive share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

Intensifying competition from direct specialty rivals (Sephora) and mass e-commerce platforms (Amazon).
Margin pressure from rising SG&A expenses, supply chain investments, and potential promotional discounting to clear inventory.
Macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer discretionary spending on premium beauty products.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Comparable store sales growth falling below 1.5% for consecutive quarters.
Operating margin contracting below 13% due to persistent promotional discounting.
A material decline in active loyalty program members or loyalty-driven sales contribution.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.