Morgan Stanley Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryInvestment Banking & Brokerage Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $213.46median of 4 methods · middle span $175-$252based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $180.57Price as of 16 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $283.6B Enterprise Value $506.6B Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date14 Jan 2027 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Morgan Stanley entered the second half of 2026 with exceptionally strong operating momentum: second-quarter ROTCE was 26.6%, Wealth Management's pre-tax margin was 30.5%, and the business gathered $148 billion of net new assets while combined Wealth and Investment Management client assets reached $10 trillion. Capital capacity also supports shareholder distributions, including the planned $1.15 quarterly common dividend and a reauthorized $20 billion repurchase program. A neutral a neutral view is appropriate because the latest performance exceeds the firm's long-term operating goals. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$184.00 Mean target$236.62 High · most bullish analyst$262.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $184.00 A material capital-markets slowdown, adverse asset-price movements or weaker client activity could reduce Institutional Securities revenue, Wealth Management fees and firmwide returns. A Wealth Management margin below 30% combined with ROTCE below 20%, or CET1 capital approaching its 11.8% requirement, would weaken the operating and capital-return case. Base CaseCentral scenario $236.62 Matches the consensus meanResults normalize from the record second quarter, but Wealth Management maintains an approximately 30% pre-tax margin, organic asset gathering remains positive, and firmwide ROTCE remains around or above the 20% long-term objective. Capital ratios remain comfortably above requirements and allow measured shareholder returns. Bull CaseUpside scenario $262.00 Sustained capital-markets activity, continued Wealth Management inflows and margins above 30%, and firmwide ROTCE remaining above 20% would demonstrate that the record second-quarter performance reflects durable integrated-firm advantages rather than a cyclical peak. Excess capital could then support continued investment, dividend growth and repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |