Moody's Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $519.94median of 6 methods · middle span $380-$561computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $514.95Price as of 28 Aug 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $89.2B Enterprise Value $94.7B Shares Outstanding 175.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$505.00 Mean target$560.48 High · most bullish analyst$610.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 29 Jul 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $490.0015% A resurgence of inflation or geopolitical shocks forces central banks to maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, severely dampening global corporate debt issuance and M&A activity. MIS transaction revenues decline sharply. Concurrently, corporate cost-cutting leads to budget constraints, causing MA customer retention to slip below 93% and slowing ARR growth. Margin compression occurs due to sticky technology and compliance costs, dragging adjusted EPS below the low end of guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $549.1960% Moody's executes in line with its updated FY 2026 guidance, delivering adjusted EPS of $16.50 to $17.00. MIS transaction volumes remain robust, supported by steady refinancing of maturing speculative-grade debt. MA continues its steady expansion with high-single-digit ARR growth and a 95% retention rate. Adjusted operating margins stabilize in the 52% to 53% range, and the company completes its expanded $3.0 billion share buyback program. Bull CaseUpside scenario $610.0025% Global debt issuance accelerates significantly faster than expected, driven by rapid interest rate cuts and a surge in corporate M&A and data-center infrastructure financing. MIS transaction revenues grow at a 20%+ rate, while MA successfully monetizes its agentic AI integrations, driving ARR growth above 12%. Operating margins expand beyond 56% due to immense operating leverage, and aggressive share repurchases (up to $3.0 billion in 2026) accelerate EPS growth well above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |