Mondelez International, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mondelez International, Inc.

MDLZ

Beta (adjusted)0.59

Intrinsic Value $61.76median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$63computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $62.36Price as of 28 Aug 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $80B

Enterprise Value $93.9B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$69.13

High · most bullish analyst$77.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$55.0020%

Pricing elasticity causes renewed volume pressure, Europe improvement stalls, and cocoa or other input costs delay margin recovery, leaving adjusted earnings under continued pressure. The price target is an internally constructed downside scenario rather than an issuer forecast.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$69.1355%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic growth remains positive but moderate, volume recovery continues unevenly, and profitability improves gradually as execution and cost actions offset continuing input-cost pressure. No primary-source or permitted-whitelist analyst-consensus target was located in this research pass, so the price target is an internally constructed scenario value and the consensus anchor is left unpopulated.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$77.0025%

Positive volume/mix broadens across regions, Europe share trends continue improving, brand investment supports demand, and stabilizing cocoa costs enable a stronger earnings recovery. The price target is an internally constructed scenario value rather than an issuer target or analyst-consensus figure.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 volume/mix improved to positive 0.7% while organic net revenue grew 2.2%, indicating better balance between pricing and demand.
Management reported continued emerging-market strength, strong North American growth and early positive share trends in Europe.
The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders during the first half of 2026 and announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Cocoa-cost pressure remains a central earnings risk after adjusted EPS declined 14.6% at constant currency in 2025.
The demand recovery is not yet fully established: full-year 2025 volume/mix declined 3.7%, while first-quarter 2026 volume/mix remained negative before turning positive in the second quarter.
Second-quarter adjusted EPS still declined 2.7% at constant currency despite improved revenue, volume and share performance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources: 3

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.