Home Depot Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Home Depot Inc

HDNYSE

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryHome Improvement Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $324.64median of 6 methods · middle span $320-$327computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 3 May 2026

Market Price $330.19Price as of 28 Aug 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $329.4B

Enterprise Value $377.2B

Shares Outstanding 997M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets32 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$310.00

Mean target$374.06

High · most bullish analyst$430.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent inflation and elevated interest rates further depress consumer confidence, causing a deeper contraction in discretionary home spending. DIY transactions continue to decline, and Pro demand softens as contractors face project delays. Integration challenges or higher debt-servicing costs from recent acquisitions pressure net margins, causing operating margins to fall below 12% and FY2026 EPS to decline year-over-year.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The housing market remains sluggish with high mortgage rates, limiting existing home sales and large-ticket discretionary renovations. Home Depot successfully integrates SRS Distribution and Mingledorff's, driving mid-single-digit organic growth in the Pro channel to offset flat DIY sales. Total sales grow between 2.5% and 4.5%, and adjusted operating margins stabilize around 12.8% to 13.0%. Diluted EPS grows flat to 4% in line with management's reaffirmed FY2026 guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Undisputed market leadership with a wide economic moat built on scale, supply chain efficiency, and brand equity.
Strong exposure to the highly profitable and resilient Professional (Pro) contractor market, further enhanced by the SRS Distribution acquisition.
Favorable long-term structural tailwinds, including an aging U.S. housing stock (median age over 40 years) and record levels of untapped home equity.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles, particularly mortgage rates, housing turnover, and consumer discretionary spending.
Short-term margin pressure from the integration of lower-margin acquired businesses (e.g., SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's) and elevated interest expenses.
Rising labor costs and intense competition from Lowe's and specialty distributors.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Comparable store sales growth falling consistently negative (below -2.0%) over multiple quarters.
Adjusted operating margin dropping below 12.0%, indicating an inability to manage integration costs or pass on inflation to consumers.
A prolonged freeze in the housing market where existing home sales drop to historic lows, severely halting pro contractor project backlogs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.