Adobe Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Adobe Inc.

ADBENASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.25

Intrinsic Value $577.10median of 6 methods · middle span $413-$751based on filings through 29 May 2026

Market Price $251.67Price as of 15 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 129% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+129%)

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Market Cap $97.9B

Enterprise Value $97.8B

Shares Outstanding 400.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date9 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Mar 2005

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Adobe entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with record quarterly revenue, $27.10 billion of total ARR and reported AI-first ARR above $500 million. Its product strategy combines established creative and customer-experience franchises with Firefly, agentic workflows, the completed Semrush acquisition and proposed Topaz Labs acquisition. These developments support durable recurring-revenue potential, but acquisition integration, rapid AI competition and uncertainty over the conversion of AI adoption into sustained incremental revenue warrant a balanced stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets34 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$190.00

Mean target$269.72

High · most bullish analyst$380.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$190.00

Revenue falls below the raised fiscal 2026 guidance floor, AI-first ARR fails to progress beyond the disclosed threshold, or integration and execution challenges around Semrush and the proposed Topaz Labs transaction distract from organic product execution.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$269.72

Matches the consensus mean

Adobe delivers within its raised fiscal 2026 revenue range while total ARR continues expanding and AI monetization grows without immediately transforming the company's overall growth profile. Semrush contributes additional brand-visibility capabilities, but integration and competitive investment temper upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$380.00

AI-first products continue scaling from the more-than-$500-million ARR level, Semrush integration accelerates adoption of Adobe Brand Visibility and related customer-experience products, and Adobe delivers above the upper end of its raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Adobe reported record second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.62 billion, representing 13% year-over-year reported growth.
Total Adobe ARR reached $27.10 billion, while management reported AI-first ARR above $500 million and more than tripling year over year.
The completed Semrush acquisition and rapid launch of Adobe Brand Visibility expand Adobe's addressable workflows into SEO, generative-engine optimization and AI-search brand visibility.

Key Investment Risks

Adobe's latest annual report identifies intense competition and rapid technological change, including artificial intelligence, as factors that can affect product demand and execution.
Adobe states that realizing the expected Semrush benefits depends on successful technology integration, customer and employee retention, and achievement of anticipated synergies.
The proposed Topaz Labs acquisition remained subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, with Adobe identifying closing, integration and business-disruption risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.